Daily Papers

Single-cell RNA-sequencing analyses predominantly use either Seurat (R) or Scanpy (Python), with the choice often driven by programming language preference. However, by default, these tools produce divergent variable features, neighbour graphs, clusters, and marker genes. Laboratories requiring Python, which supports most deep-learning, foundation-model, and agent tools, must re-implement Seurat analyses in a framework that does not replicate Seurat's results. Truecell was developed as a Python implementation of the Seurat interface, preserving function names, arguments, default settings, and the object model to facilitate seamless transfer of analyses. In eighteen paired end-to-end evaluations against R Seurat, deterministic outputs matched to floating-point precision, and fold-change order was identical across all nine differential expression tests. In a three-arm benchmark on three datasets, with fixed user parameters and 20 seeds per tool, Truecell more closely reproduced Seurat's clustering than a Seurat-configured Scanpy in all 12 combinations of dataset and resolution settings. Truecell's marker genes and enriched pathways were also closer to Seurat's than Scanpy's were, and pseudobulk DESeq2 reproduced Seurat's gene lists with a Jaccard index ranging from 0.95 to 1.00. This agreement reflects fidelity to Seurat rather than biological correctness.

Zero-shot Human-object interaction (HOI) detection aims to locate humans and objects in images and recognize their interactions. While advances in open-vocabulary object detection provide promising solutions for object localization, interaction recognition (IR) remains challenging due to the combinatorial diversity of interactions. Existing methods, including two-stage methods, tightly couple IR with a specific detector and rely on coarse-grained vision-language model (VLM) features, which limit generalization to unseen interactions. In this work, we propose a decoupled framework that separates object detection from IR and leverages multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) for zero-shot IR. We introduce a deterministic generation method that formulates IR as a visual question answering task and enforces deterministic outputs, enabling training-free zero-shot IR. To further enhance performance and efficiency by fine-tuning the model, we design a spatial-aware pooling module that integrates appearance and pairwise spatial cues, and a one-pass deterministic matching method that predicts all candidate interactions in a single forward pass. Extensive experiments on HICO-DET and V-COCO demonstrate that our method achieves superior zero-shot performance, strong cross-dataset generalization, and the flexibility to integrate with any object detectors without retraining. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/SY-Xuan/DA-HOI.

Precise recognition, editing, and generation of molecules are essential prerequisites for both chemists and AI systems tackling various chemical tasks. We present MolLangBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate fundamental molecule-language interface tasks: language-prompted molecular structure recognition, editing, and generation. To ensure high-quality, unambiguous, and deterministic outputs, we construct the recognition tasks using automated cheminformatics tools, and curate editing and generation tasks through rigorous expert annotation and validation. MolLangBench supports the evaluation of models that interface language with different molecular representations, including linear strings, molecular images, and molecular graphs. Evaluations of state-of-the-art models reveal significant limitations: the strongest model (o3) achieves 79.2% and 78.5% accuracy on recognition and editing tasks, which are intuitively simple for humans, and performs even worse on the generation task, reaching only 29.0% accuracy. These results highlight the shortcomings of current AI systems in handling even preliminary molecular recognition and manipulation tasks. We hope MolLangBench will catalyze further research toward more effective and reliable AI systems for chemical applications.

Code analysis is fundamental in Software Engineering, supporting debugging, optimization, and security assessment. Human developers approach it through syntax parsing, static semantics inference, and dynamic reasoning. Traditional tools are effective but limited by language specificity and weak cross-language generalization. Large language models (LLMs) are promising for code tasks, yet their capabilities for fundamental code analysis remain underexplored. We structure our study around three aspects aligned with human practices: syntax parsing, static semantics inference, and dynamic reasoning. We evaluate 21 state-of-the-art LLMs across nine tasks in four languages (C, Java, Python, Solidity), including AST generation, CFG construction, data dependency, taint analysis, and flaky test reasoning. We apply a three-layer evaluation protocol (automated metrics, expert adjudication, consistency validation) to 3,124 code samples, achieving high inter-rater reliability (Cohen's kappa = 0.844-0.936) and strong human-machine agreement (Gwet's AC1 = 0.500-0.727, F1 = 0.791-0.882). While the best LLMs excel in syntax parsing (AST 90%+, expression matching 84-100%) and show promise in static analysis, their dynamic reasoning remains limited (<70%) with high data-shift sensitivity (per-project F1 varying 0-1.0). This hierarchy holds across model families and scales, suggesting fundamental rather than transient limitations. These findings show how LLMs complement traditional analyzers: they offer cross-language generalization but non-deterministic outputs needing validation, while traditional tools give deterministic guarantees but need language-specific configuration. We contribute a validated evaluation framework with comparison against traditional analyzers (Tree-sitter, Soot, Joern) and task-specific applicability tiers. Benchmark: https://github.com/mathieu0905/llm_code_analysis.git

This paper examines the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), a framework for improving the reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs). Recent studies suggest that RLVR can elicit strong mathematical reasoning in LLMs through two seemingly paradoxical mechanisms: spurious rewards, which suppress exploitation by rewarding outcomes unrelated to the ground truth, and entropy minimization, which suppresses exploration by pushing the model toward more confident and deterministic outputs, highlighting a puzzling dynamic: both discouraging exploitation and discouraging exploration improve reasoning performance, yet the underlying principles that reconcile these effects remain poorly understood. We focus on two fundamental questions: (i) how policy entropy relates to performance, and (ii) whether spurious rewards yield gains, potentially through the interplay of clipping bias and model contamination. Our results show that clipping bias under spurious rewards reduces policy entropy, leading to more confident and deterministic outputs, while entropy minimization alone is insufficient for improvement. We further propose a reward-misalignment model explaining why spurious rewards can enhance performance beyond contaminated settings. Our findings clarify the mechanisms behind spurious-reward benefits and provide principles for more effective RLVR training.

Before closing venture capital financing rounds, lawyers conduct diligence that includes tying out the capitalization table: verifying that every security (for example, shares, options, warrants) and issuance term (for example, vesting schedules, acceleration triggers, transfer restrictions) is supported by large sets of underlying legal documentation. While LLMs continue to improve on legal benchmarks, specialized legal workflows, such as capitalization tie-out, remain out of reach even for strong agentic systems. The task requires multi-document reasoning, strict evidence traceability, and deterministic outputs that current approaches fail to reliably deliver. We characterize capitalization tie-out as an instance of a real-world benchmark for legal AI, analyze and compare the performance of existing agentic systems, and propose a world model architecture toward tie-out automation-and more broadly as a foundation for applied legal intelligence.

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from vision to time series remains challenging due to three discrepancies: (1) the data-modality gap between structured, bounded image data and unbounded, heterogeneous time series; (2) the multivariate-forecasting gap between fixed RGB-three-channel vision models and time series with arbitrary numbers of variates; and (3) the probabilistic-forecasting gap between the deterministic outputs of vision models and the requirement for uncertainty-aware probabilistic predictions. To bridge these gaps, we propose VisonTS++, a TSFM based on continual pre-training of a vision model on large-scale time series. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) vision-model-based filtering to identify high-quality sequences to stabilize pre-training and mitigate modality gap; (2) colorized multivariate conversion, encoding multivariate series as multi-subfigure RGB images to enhance cross-variate modeling; (3) multi-quantile forecasting, using parallel reconstruction heads to generate quantile forecasts without parametric assumptions. Experiments show that VisionTS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution forecasting, outperforming specialized TSFMs by 6%-44% in MSE reduction and ranking first in GIFT-Eval benchmark which comprises 23 datasets across 7 domains. Our work demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation, vision models can effectively generalize to TSF, thus advancing the pursuit of universal TSFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/VisionTSpp.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

Data refinement involves executing multi-step recipes over evolving text states, where both composition and execution order of processing operators determine the outcome. While existing benchmarks either isolate text editing or entangle it with code and tool execution, it remains unclear whether LLMs can directly and faithfully execute these compositional, order-sensitive data refinement recipes. To fill this gap, we introduce CDR-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark featuring 3,462 high-quality tasks spanning four real-world data refinement domains and 29 distinct operators. Our benchmark evaluates models across atomic, order-agnostic, and order-sensitive settings, leveraging deterministic reference outputs to enable exact evaluation. Experiments on 10+ state-of-the-art LLMs reveal consistent failure patterns: performance degrades sharply in compositional settings, and order-sensitive recipe success collapses. These findings underline that current LLMs lack the procedural faithfulness required for reliable compositional data refinement.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

We present Phionyx, a deterministic AI runtime architecture derived from the broader Echoism interaction framework that introduces a governance-first approach to AI engineering: treating large language model (LLM) outputs as noisy sensor measurements rather than direct decisions. Unlike probabilistic agents, Phionyx enforces deterministic state evolution via a structured state vector governed by deterministic state-evolution equations, enabling reproducible behavior in applications requiring auditability and governance. The architecture integrates three layers: (1) a deterministic evaluation kernel processing noisy sensor measurements through a canonical 46-block pipeline, (2) a unified safety layer providing pre-response control and architectural privacy enforcement, and (3) a semantic time-based memory system implementing impact-weighted cache eviction. Experimental validation on single-instance deployments demonstrates approximately 31% reduction in computational overhead vs. post-hoc filtering (at 30% unsafe input ratio, simulated cost model) and up to 24% improvement in high-value data retention vs. LRU (72% vs. FIFO, same cache capacity, benchmark-verified), deterministic execution verified across 100 repeated runs with zero variance in control signals (hash-verified), and zero unplanned restarts in single-instance deployment testing (see Appendix C for methodology and scope). This paper presents the architecture, its analytic structure, and scoped experimental evidence; generalization to distributed or multi-tenant deployments remains future work.

EigenAI is a verifiable AI platform built on top of the EigenLayer restaking ecosystem. At a high level, it combines a deterministic large-language model (LLM) inference engine with a cryptoeconomically secured optimistic re-execution protocol so that every inference result can be publicly audited, reproduced, and, if necessary, economically enforced. An untrusted operator runs inference on a fixed GPU architecture, signs and encrypts the request and response, and publishes the encrypted log to EigenDA. During a challenge window, any watcher may request re-execution through EigenVerify; the result is then deterministically recomputed inside a trusted execution environment (TEE) with a threshold-released decryption key, allowing a public challenge with private data. Because inference itself is bit-exact, verification reduces to a byte-equality check, and a single honest replica suffices to detect fraud. We show how this architecture yields sovereign agents -- prediction-market judges, trading bots, and scientific assistants -- that enjoy state-of-the-art performance while inheriting security from Ethereum's validator base.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed text generation through inherently probabilistic context-aware mechanisms, mimicking human natural language. In this paper, we systematically investigate the performance of various LLMs when generating random numbers, considering diverse configurations such as different model architectures, numerical ranges, temperature, and prompt languages. Our results reveal that, despite their stochastic transformers-based architecture, these models often exhibit deterministic responses when prompted for random numerical outputs. In particular, we find significant differences when changing the model, as well as the prompt language, attributing this phenomenon to biases deeply embedded within the training data. Models such as DeepSeek-R1 can shed some light on the internal reasoning process of LLMs, despite arriving to similar results. These biases induce predictable patterns that undermine genuine randomness, as LLMs are nothing but reproducing our own human cognitive biases.

Extensive LLM applications demand efficient structured generations, particularly for LR(1) grammars, to produce outputs in specified formats (e.g., JSON). Existing methods primarily parse LR(1) grammars into a pushdown automaton (PDA), leading to runtime execution overhead for context-dependent token processing, especially inefficient under large inference batches. To address these issues, we propose Pre^3 that exploits deterministic pushdown automata (DPDA) to optimize the constrained LLM decoding efficiency. First, by precomputing prefix-conditioned edges during the preprocessing, Pre^3 enables ahead-of-time edge analysis and thus makes parallel transition processing possible. Second, by leveraging the prefix-conditioned edges, Pre^3 introduces a novel approach that transforms LR(1) transition graphs into DPDA, eliminating the need for runtime path exploration and achieving edge transitions with minimal overhead. Pre^3 can be seamlessly integrated into standard LLM inference frameworks, reducing time per output token (TPOT) by up to 40% and increasing throughput by up to 36% in our experiments. Our code is available at https://github.com/ModelTC/lightllm.

As large language models (LLMs) transition from research prototypes to production systems, practitioners often need reliable methods to verify that model outputs satisfy required constraints. While sampling-based estimates provide an intuition of model behavior, they offer no sound guarantees. We present BEAVER, the first practical framework for computing deterministic, sound probability bounds on LLM constraint satisfaction. Given any prefix-closed semantic constraint, BEAVER systematically explores the generation space using novel token trie and frontier data structures, maintaining provably sound bounds at every iteration. We formalize the verification problem, prove soundness of our approach, and evaluate BEAVER on correctness verification, privacy verification and secure code generation tasks across multiple state of the art LLMs. BEAVER achieves 6 to 8 times tighter probability bounds and identifies 3 to 4 times more high risk instances compared to baseline methods under identical computational budgets, enabling precise characterization and risk assessment that loose bounds or empirical evaluation cannot provide.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted as automated judges for evaluating generated text, their outputs are often costly, and highly sensitive to prompt design, language, and aggregation strategies, severely, which limits reproducibility. To address these challenges, we propose \textit{OmniScore}, a family of complementary, deterministic learned metrics developed using small size (<1B) parameter models. OmniScore approximates LLM-judge behavior while preserving the low latency and consistency of traditional model-based scoring. We trained the models large-scale synthetic supervision (sim564k instances, in 107 languages) and evaluated using 8,617 manually annotated instances. The OmniScore family supports reliable, multi-dimensional scores across a variety of settings, including reference-based, source-grounded, and hybrid evaluations. We evaluate these models across question answering (QA), translation, and summarization in 6 languages. Our results demonstrate that lightweight, deterministic learned metrics provide a highly practical and scalable alternative to frontier LLMs. Our models and datasets can be found at https://huggingface.co/collections/QCRI/omniscore

When a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model does not fit in GPU memory, batch-1 decoding is dominated by copying expert weights from host memory. Cache-aware routing reduces these copies by biasing the router toward resident experts, but combined with asynchronous prefetching it makes the model's outputs depend on transfer timing, so a harness that does not simulate that timing no longer evaluates the deployed model. We propose prefetch-steered routing (PSR): routing conditions on a deterministic logical cache, into which at most n experts predicted by the next layer's router are inserted per layer and token; physical copies affect only latency. On OLMoE-1B-7B with 50% and 25% of experts resident on an RTX 4090, PSR decodes 2.2-2.3x faster than exact routing with LRU and 25-30% faster than the Cache-Prior operating point, with mean benchmark differences of +0.1 and +0.5 points (95% lower bounds -0.8 and -0.3). In greedy generation its lead over Cache-Prior depends on the workload and reverses on HumanEval at 50% residency. On Moonlight-16B-A3B, PSR is 1.9x faster than exact routing with LRU at 37.5% residency and, at the latency of Cache-Prior, significantly better on three of eight benchmarks. On Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, where copies are cheap relative to computation, PSR keeps its advantage over Cache-Prior on the likelihood benchmarks but not its speed. Distillation-trained gates did not help. Speculative decoding with block-level expert selection was slower than PSR with a 1B autoregressive drafter on OLMoE, but with a block drafter on Qwen3.6 it was 2.1-2.9x faster than any autoregressive configuration with at most its GPU memory on the 64 prompts we timed.

Stochastic restoration algorithms allow to explore the space of solutions that correspond to the degraded input. In this paper we reveal additional fundamental advantages of stochastic methods over deterministic ones, which further motivate their use. First, we prove that any restoration algorithm that attains perfect perceptual quality and whose outputs are consistent with the input must be a posterior sampler, and is thus required to be stochastic. Second, we illustrate that while deterministic restoration algorithms may attain high perceptual quality, this can be achieved only by filling up the space of all possible source images using an extremely sensitive mapping, which makes them highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Indeed, we show that enforcing deterministic models to be robust to such attacks profoundly hinders their perceptual quality, while robustifying stochastic models hardly influences their perceptual quality, and improves their output variability. These findings provide a motivation to foster progress in stochastic restoration methods, paving the way to better recovery algorithms.

Large language models (LLMs) promise to accelerate incident response in production systems, yet single-agent approaches generate vague, unusable recommendations. We present MyAntFarm.ai, a reproducible containerized framework demonstrating that multi-agent orchestration fundamentally transforms LLM-based incident response quality. Through 348 controlled trials comparing single-agent copilot versus multi-agent systems on identical incident scenarios, we find that multi-agent orchestration achieves 100% actionable recommendation rate versus 1.7% for single-agent approaches, an 80 times improvement in action specificity and 140 times improvement in solution correctness. Critically, multi-agent systems exhibit zero quality variance across all trials, enabling production SLA commitments impossible with inconsistent single-agent outputs. Both architectures achieve similar comprehension latency (approx.40s), establishing that the architectural value lies in deterministic quality, not speed. We introduce Decision Quality (DQ), a novel metric capturing validity, specificity, and correctness properties essential for operational deployment that existing LLM metrics do not address. These findings reframe multi-agent orchestration from a performance optimization to a production-readiness requirement for LLM-based incident response. All code, Docker configurations, and trial data are publicly available for reproduction.

Deterministic pre-execution safety gates evaluate whether individual agent actions are compatible with their assigned roles. While effective at per-action authorization, these systems are structurally blind to distributed attacks that decompose harmful intent across multiple individually-compliant steps. This paper introduces Session Risk Memory (SRM), a lightweight deterministic module that extends stateless execution gates with trajectory-level authorization. SRM maintains a compact semantic centroid representing the evolving behavioral profile of an agent session and accumulates a risk signal through exponential moving average over baseline-subtracted gate outputs. It operates on the same semantic vector representation as the underlying gate, requiring no additional model components, training, or probabilistic inference. We evaluate SRM on a multi-turn benchmark of 80 sessions containing slow-burn exfiltration, gradual privilege escalation, and compliance drift scenarios. Results show that ILION+SRM achieves F1 = 1.0000 with 0% false positive rate, compared to stateless ILION at F1 = 0.9756 with 5% FPR, while maintaining 100% detection rate for both systems. Critically, SRM eliminates all false positives with a per-turn overhead under 250 microseconds. The framework introduces a conceptual distinction between spatial authorization consistency (evaluated per action) and temporal authorization consistency (evaluated over trajectory), providing a principled basis for session-level safety in agentic systems.

Blind face restoration remains a persistent challenge due to the inherent ill-posedness of reconstructing holistic structures from severely constrained observations. Current generative approaches, while capable of synthesizing realistic textures, often suffer from information asymmetry -- the intrinsic disparity between the information-sparse low quality inputs and the information-dense high quality outputs. This imbalance leads to a one-to-many mapping, where insufficient constraints result in stochastic uncertainty and hallucinatory artifacts. To bridge this gap, we present Pref-Restore, a hierarchical framework that integrates discrete semantic logic with continuous texture generation to achieve deterministic, preference-aligned restoration. Our methodology fundamentally addresses this information disparity through two complementary strategies: (1) Augmenting Input Density: We employ an auto-regressive integrator to reformulate textual instructions into dense latent queries, injecting high-level semantic stability to constrain the degraded signals; (2) Pruning Output Distribution: We pioneer the integration of on-policy reinforcement learning directly into the diffusion restoration loop. By transforming human preferences into differentiable constraints, we explicitly penalize stochastic deviations, thereby sharpening the posterior distribution toward the desired high-fidelity outcomes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Pref-Restore achieves state-of-the-art performance across synthetic and real-world benchmarks. Furthermore, empirical analysis confirms that our preference-aligned strategy significantly reduces solution entropy, establishing a robust pathway toward reliable and deterministic blind restoration.

Scientific poster construction compresses a long multimodal paper into a readable, editable canvas. Existing systems hide request-level failures by scoring only completed outputs; direct image generation is not element-editable, while coding-agent workflows are costly. PosterMELD is a template-conditioned multi-agent pipeline: capacity-aware slots guide writing before rendering, and deterministic gates plus vision-language model (VLM) review route failures to bounded repair. Each accepted request exports editable PowerPoint (PPTX) and Portable Network Graphics (PNG) artifacts; explicit design controls yield same-paper variants. Across 621 papers, Print-Ready Rate (PRR) counts requests passing geometric, readability, asset-integrity, and obvious-factual-error checks, with native editability reported separately. A frozen VLM assigns conditional Craftsmanship-Harmony-Expressiveness (CHE) scores to print-ready outputs. PosterMELD attains 81.3% PRR, 3.4 times P2P's rate and 5.2 times PosterGen's, and the highest conditional CHE among generated methods with multiple print-ready outputs. Native editability and explicit design controls are retained at a mean cost of USD 0.38 per request, 3.5% of Codex+Skill's. Code and resources are available at https://github.com/Shannon4Science/PosterMELD.

Recent advances in large-scale language models (LLMs) have made multi-agent architectures attractive for challenging reasoning tasks. However, many existing systems rely on stochastic routing or ad-hoc heuristics, making their behavior difficult to reproduce and their decision process hard to interpret. We propose ORCH, a deterministic coordination framework for discrete-choice reasoning that orchestrates heterogeneous LLMs. ORCH follows a ``many analyses, one decision'' paradigm: multiple base models independently produce structured analyses, and a dedicated merge agent outputs the final choice. The framework uses fixed rules for task decomposition and answer aggregation, keeping the pipeline predictable, reproducible, and training-free. Determinism here refers to fixed routing and aggregation rules under a fixed evaluation protocol, rather than strict bit-level reproducibility across deployments. To exploit model complementarity, we optionally introduce an EMA-guided router that updates agent selection using historical accuracy, latency, or cost; since it relies on answer-based feedback, it is mainly intended for benchmarking, controlled evaluation, or delayed-feedback settings. Experiments on MMLU, MMLU-Pro, and GSM8K show that ORCH consistently outperforms single-model baselines and a majority-vote ensemble. On MMLU-Pro, ORCH improves accuracy by over 10 points compared to the strongest baseline, and on GSM8K it yields gains exceeding 50 points; McNemar tests confirm statistical significance. The EMA router provides an additional 0.7--2.0 point accuracy boost, and ablations show that both multi-agent collaboration and routing contribute substantially. Overall, ORCH offers a practical path toward controllable, interpretable, and deployment-ready LLM-based agent systems for discrete-choice reasoning.

Generative AI and large language models (LLMs) are moving into the Internet of Things, yet most deployments assume cloud connectivity, and many IoT settings have intermittent, restricted, or no connectivity. We propose a connectivity-regime framework (C0-C4), a taxonomy of inference-time trust mechanisms, and signed, versioned knowledge packs as the update channel for disconnected regimes, and evaluate them on a Raspberry Pi 5 running fully local retrieval-augmented generation under network isolation, with three Qwen2.5 model sizes, three context sizes, and 300 SQuAD 2.0 questions. An empirically calibrated retrieval-score gate detects knowledge gaps almost perfectly (AUROC 0.97) but in-topic unanswerable questions poorly (0.68). A deterministic output validator converts malformed outputs into explicit abstentions with no observed loss of correct answers, while the NLI-based verifier we tested adds little; for the 7B model, 96% of substantive answers to unanswerable-labelled questions match normalized spans of the retrieved passages. A 3B model achieves the same gold-answer containment rate as a 7B model at less than half the latency and estimated energy, although the 7B model far more often exceeds a token-F1 threshold of 0.5; five retrieved passages lower correctness from 75% to 52% compared with three. Verifying a signed pack takes about 4.5 ms versus about 29 min for embedding its passages on the device; signature and hash checks alone accept six of nine tested update attacks that layered verification rejects. Yet a validly signed poisoned pack passes every pack check: on 30 previously correct questions, correct answers drop to zero and 14 return the injected answer. None of the mechanisms we evaluated establishes the truth of the evidence. We release code and data.

Code generated by large language models passes security checks at a rate that has barely moved in four years. In regulated backends, the defect classes that matter most are money arithmetic, time handling, retry safety, and access control. Teams answer with instruction files, yet the largest controlled study of instruction files to date found no benefit. This paper tests a narrower idea: generated code improves when the prompt carries a specification, a fixed preamble stating what must be true of the result. We pre-registered hypotheses, refuters, analysis code, and a one-shot generation rule, then ran 50 realistic backend tasks from finance, healthcare, and insurance practice through five frontier models from five vendor lineages, each task twice: bare, and preceded by a 267-word filled specification frame. Nine deterministic AST-based checkers scored the outputs. The Bandit security scanner, which knows nothing of the frame, scored them independently. The frame reduced defects in all five models (mean reduction 0.16 to 0.70 findings per task, every Holm-adjusted sign test significant, every bootstrap confidence interval excluding zero). Where the arms differed, the frame arm won 95 of 100 times. It never made any model worse in any domain. Bandit found 53 medium-or-high issues in the bare arm and 11 in the frame arm, in the same direction for every model. The effect was largest where a model's unprompted defaults were weakest: the frame supplies the discipline a model lacks. All 500 outputs, prompts, checkers, scoring code, and the pre-registration are published with a DOI, so any team can re-derive the result without trusting the author.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable success by integrating visual encoders with large language models (LLMs). While VLMs process dense image tokens across deep transformer stacks (incurring substantial computational overhead), it remains fundamentally unclear whether sustained image-token processing is necessary for their performance or visual representations meaningfully evolve from early to later layers. In this work, we systematically investigate the functional role of image tokens in VLMs and show that visual representations rapidly converge to a bounded-complexity regime, \ie their entropy stabilizes, intrinsic dimensionality compresses, and trajectory curvature approaches a near-constant profile. In contrast, textual representations continue to undergo substantial restructuring across depth. Once stabilized, visual representations become largely interchangeable between layers, indicating limited additional transformation in deeper stages. Further, depth-wise visual truncation reveals that the necessity of visual processing is task-dependent, where single-token predictions remain comparatively robust to truncated visual depth, but multi-token generation require sustained access to visual representations. Under deterministic decoding, reducing visual depth perturbs intermediate reasoning trajectories more strongly than final outputs, suggesting that image tokens influence the structure of reasoning more than the ultimate conclusions. Collectively, these findings question the assumption that deeper visual processing is uniformly essential in VLMs, challenging the current paradigm of multimodal LLM architectures.

Professional agent tasks often depend on conventions that are absent from public corpora, yet benchmarks rarely control whether an agent has access to those conventions. We introduce a knowledge-gated task-construction protocol that separates a task instruction from a compact artefact containing private conventions, reference tables, and utility operators. Construction-time provenance, byte-identical task instructions across the provided- and withheld-artefact conditions, leak audits, and executable witnesses make dependence on the artefact explicit and testable. Across fifteen calibration tasks, one frontier agent configuration achieves a 68.0% pass rate with the artefact and 0% without it; on one task, a plausible but incorrect artefact also yields 0% across five trials. Deterministic solvers and rule corpora provide exact ground truth for structured tasks, while named criterion-level rubrics support outputs that cannot be checked by a single executable oracle. A configuration-relative calibration screen retains seven tasks satisfying our five-trial empirical knowledge-gating screen. These experiments validate the behavior of the construction protocol; they do not establish that the retained tasks improve post-training. We publicly release part of the task suite and supporting tooling at https://github.com/DatagridsAI/Knowledge-Gated-Task-Construction.

Predicting satellite imagery requires a balance between structural accuracy and textural detail. Standard deterministic methods like PredRNN or SimVP minimize pixel-based errors but suffer from the "regression to the mean" problem, producing blurry outputs that obscure subtle geographic-spatial features. Generative models provide realistic textures but often misleadingly reveal structural anomalies. To bridge this gap, we introduce Sat-JEPA-Diff, which combines Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) with Hidden Diffusion Models (LDM). An IJEPA module predicts stable semantic representations, which then route a frozen Stable Diffusion backbone via a lightweight cross-attention adapter. This ensures that the synthesized high-accuracy textures are based on absolutely accurate structural predictions. Evaluated on a global Sentinel-2 dataset, Sat-JEPA-Diff excels at resolving sharp boundaries. It achieves leading perceptual scores (GSSIM: 0.8984, FID: 0.1475) and significantly outperforms deterministic baselines, despite standard autoregressive stability limits. The code and dataset are publicly available on https://github.com/VU-AIML/SAT-JEPA-DIFF.

Large language models have shown considerable potential for natural-language-driven parametric CAD modeling. However, a fundamental contradiction exists between their probabilistic generation and the deterministic requirements of CAD modeling, resulting in limitations in reliability, design-intent preservation, and geometric validity. Existing methods typically rely on large-scale annotated datasets, lack explicit modeling of design intent, and underutilize the deterministic capabilities of CAD kernels. To address these limitations, we propose ReliCAD, a unified framework that transforms uncertain LLM generation into reliable parametric CAD modeling. Through explicit design-intent modeling, ReliCAD converts user requirements into structured design specifications and explicitly models geometric relations, topological dependencies, and feature construction order. It then generates constraint-aware parametric instructions and invokes the CAD kernel through an Agent-ready API to perform geometric construction and constraint solving. ReliCAD further records runtime evidence and employs a verification-feedback mechanism to assess consistency between the generated model and the design specifications, enabling error localization and iterative repair. Experiments on the public HistCAD generation dataset and our multi-granularity CAD editing dataset demonstrate that ReliCAD significantly outperforms baseline methods, achieving 99.8\% validity rate and 0.8753 IoU. ReliCAD provides a verifiable, repairable, and generalizable approach to natural-language-interactive CAD modeling.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly capable of supporting scientific workflows, but their capabilities across diverse research activities remain difficult to assess systematically. Existing benchmarks often focus on selected scientific capabilities or task types, limiting a comprehensive characterization of scientific agents' strengths and weaknesses in realistic research workflows. We introduce SCI-AGENT-EXAM, a workflow-oriented benchmark comprising 120 expert-curated tasks across 11 scientific fields and 7 research task types defined by the Scientific Workflow Task Taxonomy (SWTT). Each task requires both executable artifacts (e.g., code and scripts) and textual artifacts (e.g., reports and explanations). To evaluate the heterogeneous task outputs, we develop a hybrid evaluation protocol combining deterministic programmatic verification for executable artifacts with a calibrated, expert-validated LLM-based judge for textual artifacts. Beyond outcome assessment, we analyze progress and solution stability along execution trajectories to characterize how agents reach their final results. Experiments with 10 frontier LLM agents reveal substantial performance gaps: GPT-6 Astra achieves the highest overall score of 80.9, yet only 26.0% of its runs exceed the 0.95 success threshold. Further analyses uncover distinct capability profiles across scientific task types and substantial variation in execution efficiency and stability. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/Sci-Agent-Exam.

Real-world data science involves long-horizon workflows that span data wrangling, exploration, modeling, visualization, and validation, and require coordinated use of tools such as notebooks, IDEs, terminals, browsers, and databases within real operating environments. Yet existing benchmarks lack real-computer interaction and do not evaluate whether agents can execute complete end-to-end data-science workflows in realistic computing environments, failing to capture the multi-stage, multi-tool nature of data-science practice. We introduce DSAgentBench, the first benchmark to evaluate whether agents can automate full data-science workflows inside real computer environments. DSAgentBench contains 275 diverse tasks covering the entire data-science life-cycle, reflecting the complexity and tool coordination required in practice. Each task requires grounding decisions in intermediate outputs and coordinated tool use, and includes a deterministic evaluator that verifies analytical correctness, visual outputs, and model performance rather than code-only execution. Our extensive experiments with 15 closed- and open-source models show that even the strongest agent, Claude-4.6-Sonnet, achieves only 56.70% task success, while all open-source agents remain below 1%, frequently failing at tool orchestration, OS grounding, and multi-step reasoning. These results reveal a substantial capability gap between current agentic systems and real data-science workflows, positioning DSAgentBench as a foundation for developing grounded, verifiable, autonomous data-science agents. We release DSAgentBench at https://github.com/vis-nlp/DSAgentBench.

Enterprise guideline documents mix narrative text, complex tables, and embedded images, and converting them into structured work artifacts still takes two to three days of manual effort each. Current language and vision-language models extract from such documents but offer no governed workflow beyond extraction: no validation, no consistency checking, no traceable artifact generation. We introduce SAGE, a governed multi-stage LLM pipeline organized around a shared versioned rule store with stable identifiers, schema-validated inter-stage contracts, and end-to-end provenance tracking. Extracted rules undergo deterministic structural validation and LLM-based semantic scoring, then a consistency module that removes duplicates, flags contradictions, and surfaces specification gaps; only uncertain or flagged items reach reviewers, while high-confidence outputs are auto-approved. On 120 documents, SAGE cuts turnaround from days to 20-100 minutes, achieving a 96% document-level success rate with 3.2% hallucination, extracting 3,896 rules and producing 812 artifacts ready for human review; without governance, hallucination rises to 15.7%.

Conventional Japanese automatic speech recognition (ASR) is supervised by an orthographic transcript, although the same written form can correspond to different lexical readings realized in speech. Such utterances receive an identical target, so their reading distinction is absent from the supervision interface and cannot be recovered reliably by post-hoc text-only grapheme-to-phoneme conversion. We present Ruby-ASR, which refines the conventional target into a span-bound orthographic--lexical-reading sequence. Unlike separate full-sentence orthographic and phonological outputs, the ruby representation locally binds each written span to its realized reading and permits deterministic recovery of both views. We instantiate the target under subtitle-style and verbatim-style transcription conventions using a Qwen3-ASR backbone; a mora-level CTC objective provides auxiliary monotonic reading supervision. The experimental results across five Japanese benchmarks show that refining the recognition target can improve lexical-reading recovery without sacrificing readable orthographic transcription. We release the checkpoints and inference code.

Large Language Models enable flexible natural-language planning but remain unreliable in determinism-critical domains due to their probabilistic nature. This limitation is especially problematic in running planning, where violating safety rules can lead to safety risks. We propose SafeRun, a framework for deterministic LLM-based planning via a decoupled architecture. SafeRun separates soft interpretation by an LLM from hard constraint enforcement by a deterministic solver, ensuring strict safety constraints while preserving natural-language flexibility. To validate SafeRun, we build a comprehensive benchmark for running planning under realistic physiological and safety constraints. Experiments across five LLMs show that SafeRun achieves 100\% safety score (vs.\ 79.1\% PE average and 97.6\% CodeAct average) while maintaining competitive instruction-following scores. The SafeRun benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/zzp-seeker/SafeRun-RunPlanning-Benchmark{huggingface}.

Existing benchmarks for evaluating long-context language models (LCLMs) primarily focus on long-context recall, requiring models to produce short responses based on a few critical snippets while processing thousands of irrelevant tokens. We introduce LongProc (Long Procedural Generation), a new benchmark that requires both the integration of highly dispersed information and long-form generation. LongProc consists of six diverse procedural generation tasks, such as extracting structured information from HTML pages into a TSV format and executing complex search procedures to create travel plans. These tasks challenge LCLMs by testing their ability to follow detailed procedural instructions, synthesize and reason over dispersed information, and generate structured, long-form outputs (up to 8K tokens). Furthermore, as these tasks adhere to deterministic procedures and yield structured outputs, they enable reliable rule-based evaluation. We evaluate 17 LCLMs on LongProc across three difficulty levels, with maximum numbers of output tokens set at 500, 2K, and 8K. Notably, while all tested models claim a context window size above 32K tokens, open-weight models typically falter on 2K-token tasks, and closed-source models like GPT-4o show significant degradation on 8K-token tasks. Further analysis reveals that LCLMs struggle to maintain long-range coherence in long-form generations. These findings highlight critical limitations in current LCLMs and suggest substantial room for improvement. Data and code available at: https://princeton-pli.github.io/LongProc

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

A network trained to recover the walls, openings, and rooms of a rasterized floorplan can produce its output in two ways: by emitting the geometry as an autoregressive coordinate sequence, or by detecting it on dense junction and centerline heatmaps and assembling a graph. We compare the two readouts on the same trained network. On real scans (CubiCasa5K) detection is better on every wall measure (+2.7 wall F1 at tolerance 0.05, +5.1 at 0.015; paired bootstrap intervals exclude zero), and reading an opening heatmap the decoder never used raises opening F1 by 2.6x without retraining. Within real scans the readout's advantage grows with plan size and reverses on small plans; on clean vector renders sequence decoding is better by 5 to 8 points where its training covered the render style, while under full domain shift the readout, given calibrated thresholds, stays ahead; neither ink density nor plan size explains the reversal. With matched data and recipe, a room-centric system with a reconciliation step and a wall-first sequence model reach comparable wall quality, so the output representation matters less than is usually assumed. A prior from the other family helps at the output but not at the input: deterministic fusion of the two outputs raises wall F1 by 7 points, whereas conditioning one model on the other's output gives no gain in three forms, including two ground-truth-content controls. We also provide an edit-cost metric that scores a draft by the human work needed to correct it, corrected CubiCasa5K annotations, and ResPlan-FP, a CC BY 4.0 benchmark of 16,998 plans with frozen splits and three baseline tracks. Code, the benchmark, and the corrected annotations are available at https://github.com/Cyprinus12138/fpvec-lab

This article introduces Lester, a novel method to automatically synthetise retro-style 2D animations from videos. The method approaches the challenge mainly as an object segmentation and tracking problem. Video frames are processed with the Segment Anything Model (SAM) and the resulting masks are tracked through subsequent frames with DeAOT, a method of hierarchical propagation for semi-supervised video object segmentation. The geometry of the masks' contours is simplified with the Douglas-Peucker algorithm. Finally, facial traits, pixelation and a basic shadow effect can be optionally added. The results show that the method exhibits an excellent temporal consistency and can correctly process videos with different poses and appearances, dynamic shots, partial shots and diverse backgrounds. The proposed method provides a more simple and deterministic approach than diffusion models based video-to-video translation pipelines, which suffer from temporal consistency problems and do not cope well with pixelated and schematic outputs. The method is also much most practical than techniques based on 3D human pose estimation, which require custom handcrafted 3D models and are very limited with respect to the type of scenes they can process.

Multi-modal generative document parsing systems challenge traditional evaluation: unlike deterministic OCR or layout models, they often produce semantically correct yet structurally divergent outputs. Conventional metrics-CER, WER, IoU, or TEDS-misclassify such diversity as error, penalizing valid interpretations and obscuring system behavior. We introduce SCORE (Structural and COntent Robust Evaluation), an interpretation-agnostic framework that integrates (i) adjusted edit distance for robust content fidelity, (ii) token-level diagnostics to distinguish hallucinations from omissions, (iii) table evaluation with spatial tolerance and semantic alignment, and (iv) hierarchy-aware consistency checks. Together, these dimensions enable evaluation that embraces representational diversity while enforcing semantic rigor. Across 1,114 pages spanning a holistic benchmark and a field dataset, SCORE consistently revealed cross-dataset performance patterns missed by standard metrics. In 2-5% of pages with ambiguous table structures, traditional metrics penalized systems by 12-25% on average, leading to distorted rankings. SCORE corrected these cases, recovering equivalence between alternative but valid interpretations. Moreover, by normalizing generative outputs into a format-agnostic representation, SCORE reproduces traditional scores (e.g., table F1 up to 0.93) without requiring object-detection pipelines, demonstrating that generative parsing alone suffices for comprehensive evaluation. By exposing how interpretive diversity impacts evaluation outcomes and providing multi-dimensional, interpretable diagnostics, SCORE establishes foundational principles for semantically grounded, fair, and practical benchmarking of modern document parsing systems.

Despite the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) on various tasks following human instructions, controlling model generation at inference time poses a persistent challenge. In this paper, we introduce Ctrl-G, an adaptable framework that facilitates tractable and flexible control of LLM generation to reliably follow logical constraints. Ctrl-G combines any production-ready LLM with a Hidden Markov Model, enabling LLM outputs to adhere to logical constraints represented as deterministic finite automata. We show that Ctrl-G, when applied to a TULU2-7B model, outperforms GPT3.5 and GPT4 on the task of interactive text editing: specifically, for the task of generating text insertions/continuations following logical constraints, Ctrl-G achieves over 30% higher satisfaction rate in human evaluation compared to GPT4. When applied to medium-size language models (e.g., GPT2-large), Ctrl-G also beats its counterparts for constrained generation by large margins on standard benchmarks. Additionally, as a proof-of-concept study, we experiment Ctrl-G on the Grade School Math benchmark to assist LLM reasoning, foreshadowing the application of Ctrl-G, as well as other constrained generation approaches, beyond traditional language generation tasks.

As scaled language models (LMs) approach human-level reasoning capabilities, self-improvement emerges as a solution to synthesizing high-quality data corpus. While previous research has identified model collapse as a risk in self-improvement, where model outputs become increasingly deterministic, we discover a more fundamental challenge: the superficial self-improved reasoners phenomenon. In particular, our analysis reveals that even when LMs show improved in-domain (ID) reasoning accuracy, they actually compromise their generalized reasoning capabilities on out-of-domain (OOD) tasks due to memorization rather than genuine. Through a systematic investigation of LM architecture, we discover that during self-improvement, LM weight updates are concentrated in less reasoning-critical layers, leading to superficial learning. To address this, we propose Iterative Model Merging (IMM), a method that strategically combines weights from original and self-improved models to preserve generalization while incorporating genuine reasoning improvements. Our approach effectively mitigates both LM collapse and superficial learning, moving towards more stable self-improving systems.

The field of Artificial Intelligence is undergoing a transition from Generative AI -- probabilistic generation of text and images -- to Agentic AI, in which autonomous systems execute actions within external environments on behalf of users. This transition exposes a fundamental architectural mismatch: Large Language Models (LLMs) produce stochastic, unstructured outputs, whereas the backend infrastructure they must control -- databases, APIs, cloud services -- requires deterministic, schema-conformant inputs. The present paper describes the Auton Agentic AI Framework, a principled architecture for standardizing the creation, execution, and governance of autonomous agent systems. The framework is organized around a strict separation between the Cognitive Blueprint, a declarative, language-agnostic specification of agent identity and capabilities, and the Runtime Engine, the platform-specific execution substrate that instantiates and runs the agent. This separation enables cross-language portability, formal auditability, and modular tool integration via the Model Context Protocol (MCP). The paper formalizes the agent execution model as an augmented Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with a latent reasoning space, introduces a hierarchical memory consolidation architecture inspired by biological episodic memory systems, defines a constraint manifold formalism for safety enforcement via policy projection rather than post-hoc filtering, presents a three-level self-evolution framework spanning in-context adaptation through reinforcement learning, and describes runtime optimizations -- including parallel graph execution, speculative inference, and dynamic context pruning -- that reduce end-to-end latency for multi-step agent workflows.

Spatial competence is the quality of maintaining a consistent internal representation of an environment and using it to infer discrete structure and plan actions under constraints. Prevailing spatial evaluations for large models are limited to probing isolated primitives through 3D transformations or visual question answering. We introduce the Spatial Competence Benchmark (SCBench), spanning three hierarchical capability buckets whose tasks require executable outputs verified by deterministic checkers or simulator-based evaluators. On SCBench, three frontier models exhibit monotonically decreasing accuracy up the capability ladder. Sweeping output-token caps shows that accuracy gains concentrate at low budgets and saturate quickly, and failures are dominated by locally plausible geometry that breaks global constraints. We release the task generators, verifiers, and visualisation tooling.

The rapid deployment of AI agents in commercial settings has outpaced the development of evaluation methodologies that reflect production realities. Existing benchmarks measure agent capabilities through retrospectively curated tasks with well-specified requirements and deterministic metrics -- conditions that diverge fundamentally from production environments where requirements contain implicit constraints, inputs are heterogeneous multi-modal documents with information fragmented across sources, tasks demand undeclared domain expertise, outputs are long-horizon professional deliverables, and success is judged by domain experts whose standards evolve over time. We present AlphaEval, a production-grounded benchmark of 94 tasks sourced from seven companies deploying AI agents in their core business, spanning six O*NET (Occupational Information Network) domains. Unlike model-centric benchmarks, AlphaEval evaluates complete agent products -- Claude Code, Codex, etc. -- as commercial systems, capturing performance variations invisible to model-level evaluation. Our evaluation framework covers multiple paradigms (LLM-as-a-Judge, reference-driven metrics, formal verification, rubric-based assessment, automated UI testing, etc.), with individual domains composing multiple paradigms. Beyond the benchmark itself, we contribute a requirement-to-benchmark construction framework -- a systematic methodology that transforms authentic production requirements into executable evaluation tasks in minimal time. This framework standardizes the entire pipeline from requirement to evaluation, providing a reproducible, modular process that any organization can adopt to construct production-grounded benchmarks for their own domains.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

AI-assisted software generation has increased development speed, but it has also amplified a persistent engineering problem: systems that are functionally correct may still be structurally insecure. In practice, prompt-based security review with large language models often suffers from uneven coverage, weak reproducibility, unsupported findings, and the absence of an immutable audit trail. The ESAA architecture addresses a related governance problem in agentic software engineering by separating heuristic agent cognition from deterministic state mutation through append-only events, constrained outputs, and replay-based verification. This paper presents ESAA-Security, a domain-specific specialization of ESAA for agent-assisted security auditing of software repositories, with particular emphasis on AI-generated or AI-modified code. ESAA-Security structures auditing as a governed execution pipeline with four phases reconnaissance, domain audit execution, risk classification, and final reporting and operationalizes the workflow into 26 tasks, 16 security domains, and 95 executable checks. The framework produces structured check results, vulnerability inventories, severity classifications, risk matrices, remediation guidance, executive summaries, and a final markdown/JSON audit report. The central idea is that security review should not be modeled as a free-form conversation with an LLM, but as an evidence-oriented audit process governed by contracts and events. In ESAA-Security, agents emit structured intentions under constrained protocols; the orchestrator validates them, persists accepted outputs to an append-only log, reprojects derived views, and verifies consistency through replay and hashing. The result is a traceable, reproducible, and risk-oriented audit architecture whose final report is auditable by construction.

Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) analysts routinely convert noisy, unstructured security artifacts into standardized, automation-ready representations. Although large language models (LLMs) show promise for this task, existing approaches remain brittle when producing structured CTI outputs and have largely relied on supervised fine-tuning (SFT). In contrast, CTI standards and community-maintained resources define canonical identifiers and schemas that enable deterministic verification of model outputs. We leverage this structure to study reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for CTI tasks. We introduce Minerva, a unified dataset and training pipeline spanning multiple CTI subtasks, each paired with task-specific verifiers that score structured outputs and identifier predictions. To address reward sparsity during rollout, we propose MinervaRL, a lightweight self-training mechanism that generates additional verified trajectories and distills them back into the model. Averaged across four backbones and 12 CTI benchmarks, MinervaRL improves the mean score by 15.8 percentage points over the corresponding base models and by 4.3 points over GRPO.

Large language models (LLMs) trained on huge corpora of text datasets demonstrate intriguing capabilities, achieving state-of-the-art performance on tasks they were not explicitly trained for. The precise nature of LLM capabilities is often mysterious, and different prompts can elicit different capabilities through in-context learning. We propose a framework that enables us to analyze in-context learning dynamics to understand latent concepts underlying LLMs' behavioral patterns. This provides a more nuanced understanding than success-or-failure evaluation benchmarks, but does not require observing internal activations as a mechanistic interpretation of circuits would. Inspired by the cognitive science of human randomness perception, we use random binary sequences as context and study dynamics of in-context learning by manipulating properties of context data, such as sequence length. In the latest GPT-3.5+ models, we find emergent abilities to generate seemingly random numbers and learn basic formal languages, with striking in-context learning dynamics where model outputs transition sharply from seemingly random behaviors to deterministic repetition.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

We introduce PPTArena, a benchmark for PowerPoint editing that measures reliable modifications to real slides under natural-language instructions. In contrast to image-PDF renderings or text-to-slide generation, PPTArena focuses on in-place editing across 100 decks, 2125 slides, and over 800 targeted edits covering text, charts, tables, animations, and master-level styles. Each case includes a ground-truth deck, a fully specified target outcome, and a dual VLM-as-judge pipeline that separately scores instruction following and visual quality using both structural diffs and slide images. Building on this setting, we propose PPTPilot, a structure-aware slide-editing agent that plans semantic edit sequences, routes between high-level programmatic tools and deterministic XML operations for precise control, and verifies outputs through an iterative plan-edit-check loop against task-specific constraints. In our experiments, PPTPilot outperforms strong proprietary agents and frontier VLM systems by over 10 percentage points on compound, layout-sensitive, and cross-slide edits, with particularly large gains in visual fidelity and deck-wide consistency. Despite these improvements, existing agents still underperform on long-horizon, document-scale tasks in PPTArena, highlighting the remaining challenges in reliable PPT editing.

Data agents enable natural-language analytics over organizational workspaces, where relevant evidence may be scattered across databases, structured files, long documents, and multimedia. Existing benchmarks largely isolate structured querying, retrieval, or open-ended analysis, leaving heterogeneous evidence discovery, complete tabular outputs, and deterministic evaluation insufficiently unified. We introduce DataSpace, a benchmark in which data agents produce verifiable tabular results from task-local heterogeneous workspaces. It contains 410 cross-language tasks and 7,439 artifacts totaling 15.01 GB across CSV, JSON, SQLite, Markdown, PDF, and video. DataSpace also served as the official evaluation benchmark for the KDD Cup 2026 Data Agents for Complex Data Analysis competition. Each agent receives only a question and workspace and returns the complete requested tabular result. We construct DataSpace with DataSpace-Builder, an execution-grounded framework comprising cross-language transformation, constraint-aware relational sampling, modality routing and artifact rendering, and human review and task repair by 11 domain experts. A deterministic evaluator performs header-invariant column alignment, type- and precision-aware normalization, and order-aware row comparison. Across six recently released frontier multimodal models and five widely used agent harnesses, the best accuracy reaches 66.34%, while harness choice creates a 15.36-point spread with the backbone fixed. Multimodal evidence integration and joins consistently reduce accuracy across all six backbones. These results show that DataSpace remains unsaturated and identify key challenges for improving data-agent reliability.

Verifying claims about AI workloads is a prerequisite for credible AI governance of covert adversaries (who comply with monitoring only when detection likelihood is high), yet the apparent non-determinism of GPU floating-point arithmetic forces auditors to accept approximate output matches. Covert adversaries can exploit unverifiable degrees of freedom in monitored computation. Attack vectors include steganography, unreported modification of inference software, and covert computation via unreported batch elements. Empirically, we analyze how modern inference engines (vLLM, HF transformers) produce deterministic but non-invariant outputs, without needing to set performance-compromising determinism flags, if the right information is available for re-computation and no atomic functions are called in the backend. We demonstrate that such bitwise-precise re-computation does not require access to identical hardware, via a software-only emulation of LLM inference across multiple NVIDIA GPU variants. Thus, accumulated rounding errors can be an auditable signature of the software and hardware setup used for inference, instead of a constraint on verifiability.

Policy enforcement for LLM agents has shifted from single-turn content moderation to compound, application-specific policies evaluated over multi-turn transcripts and tool-call trajectories. Fine-tuned guardrail models are efficient but degrade on compound policies, and while LLM-as-a-judge approaches achieve higher accuracy, they incur high inference cost and tend to produce unstable predictions. Neurosymbolic methods offer a natural alternative, decomposing the policy into narrow neural decisions composed under explicit logic. However, existing symbolic layers lack the required expressiveness and are optimized against fixed data rather than the policy itself. To address this, we introduce SCOPE, which compiles a policy into an executable program of neural predicates executed by small models, deterministic extractors, and code that composes their outputs. The program is optimized jointly with its training data, using adversarial generation of counterexamples that target where the program deviates from the policy. We evaluate SCOPE on a benchmark of real-world policy tasks against prompt optimization, task decomposition, and workflow generation methods, achieving the highest average accuracy across tasks and models. Programs optimized with the weakest executor transfer to other models without further optimization. This allows them to be deployed in production on inexpensive models, where they reach accuracy comparable to frontier reasoning models. Unlike these monolithic models, SCOPE produces substantially more stable predictions, and each verdict is interpretable through the predicate outputs that produced it. Additionally, we validate the key components of our method through an ablation study. SCOPE thus enables reliable, interpretable, and efficient policy enforcement at production scale.

Despite their impressive capabilities, aligned large language models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack diversity. What drives this stability in the generation? We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of probability concentration in the model's output distribution. To quantify this concentration, we introduce the Branching Factor (BF) -- a token-invariant measure of the effective number of plausible next steps during generation. Our empirical analysis reveals two key findings: (1) BF often decreases as generation progresses, suggesting that LLMs become more predictable as they generate. (2) alignment tuning substantially sharpens the model's output distribution from the outset, reducing BF by nearly an order of magnitude (e.g., from 12 to 1.2) relative to base models. This stark reduction helps explain why aligned models often appear less sensitive to decoding strategies. Building on this insight, we find this stability has surprising implications for complex reasoning. Aligned Chain-of-Thought (CoT) models (e.g., DeepSeek-distilled models), for instance, leverage this effect; by generating longer reasoning chains, they push generation into later, more deterministic (lower BF) stages, resulting in more stable outputs. We hypothesize that alignment tuning does not fundamentally change a model's behavior, but instead steers it toward stylistic tokens (e.g., "Sure") that unlock low-entropy trajectories already present in the base model. This view is supported by nudging experiments, which show that prompting base models with such tokens can similarly reduce BF. Together, our findings establish BF as a powerful diagnostic for understanding and controlling LLM outputs - clarifying how alignment reduces variability, how CoT promotes stable generations, and how base models can be steered away from diversity.

A widespread assumption in local feature research holds that classical handcrafted descriptors are accuracy-limited relics best replaced by learned alternatives. We show this is wrong. Through an 8-configuration ablation spanning four benchmarks (HPatches, ROxford5K, IMC Phototourism, MegaDepth), we demonstrate that classical SIFT with DSP multi-scale pooling outperforms neural descriptor and orientation replacements (HardNet, OriNet) on every accuracy metric--while running 2--18times faster--and that learned matchers (LightGlue) complement rather than supersede classical features. The conclusion reframes a decade of work: not "replace SIFT" but "compose with SIFT," classical extraction paired with learned matching only where geometric context demands it. This finding was invisible because no prior GPU SIFT kept the complete pipeline in VRAM or offered modularity for controlled classical-vs-learned ablations. We present PySIFT, the first fully GPU-resident SIFT, implemented in CuPy/Numba CUDA kernels with DLPack zero-copy handoff to downstream DL frameworks--submillisecond O(1) metadata swap regardless of keypoint count. On a laptop-grade NVIDIA RTX 3050 (4 GB VRAM), PySIFT achieves: (i) higher Mean Matching Accuracy (MMA) than OpenCV SIFT on HPatches, (ii) 383 ms faster per pair on high-resolution MegaDepth, (iii) higher geometric accuracy on cross-dataset benchmarks (+5.6 pp AUC@10{}^circ on MegaDepth, more inliers on IMC Phototourism), and (iv) bitwise deterministic output--identical keypoints and descriptors across runs, with detection reproducing identically even across GPU architectures: a guarantee that learned extractors cannot match without significant performance sacrifice, and cannot achieve at all across GPU architectures due to cuDNN's architecture-dependent algorithm selection. PySIFT is open-source, requiring no C++ compilation.

LLM agents struggle with regulatory audit replay: when asked to reproduce a flagged transaction decision with identical inputs, many deployments fail to return consistent results. We introduce the Determinism-Faithfulness Assurance Harness (DFAH), a framework for measuring trajectory determinism, decision determinism, and evidence-conditioned faithfulness in tool-using agents deployed in financial services. Across 4,700+ agentic runs (7 models, 4 providers, 3 financial benchmarks with 50 cases each at T=0.0), we find that decision determinism and task accuracy are not detectably correlated (r = -0.11, 95% CI [-0.49, 0.31], p = 0.63, n = 21 configurations): models can be deterministic without being accurate, and accurate without being deterministic. Because neither metric predicts the other in our sample, both must be measured independently, which is precisely what DFAH provides. Small models (7-20B) achieve near-perfect determinism through rigid pattern matching at the cost of accuracy (20-42%), while frontier models show moderate determinism (50-96%) with variable accuracy. No model achieves both perfect determinism and high accuracy, supporting DFAH's multi-dimensional measurement approach. We provide three financial benchmarks (compliance triage, portfolio constraints, and DataOps exceptions; 50 cases each) together with an open-source stress-test harness. Across these benchmarks and DFAH evaluation settings, Tier 1 models with schema-first architectures achieved determinism levels consistent with audit replay requirements.

Autonomous driving requires an understanding of the static environment from sensor data. Learned Bird's-Eye View (BEV) encoders are commonly used to fuse multiple inputs, and a vector decoder predicts a vectorized map representation from the latent BEV grid. However, traditional map construction models provide deterministic point estimates, failing to capture uncertainty and the inherent ambiguities of real-world environments, such as occlusions and missing lane markings. We propose MapDiffusion, a novel generative approach that leverages the diffusion paradigm to learn the full distribution of possible vectorized maps. Instead of predicting a single deterministic output from learned queries, MapDiffusion iteratively refines randomly initialized queries, conditioned on a BEV latent grid, to generate multiple plausible map samples. This allows aggregating samples to improve prediction accuracy and deriving uncertainty estimates that directly correlate with scene ambiguity. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that MapDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in online map construction, surpassing the baseline by 5% in single-sample performance. We further show that aggregating multiple samples consistently improves performance along the ROC curve, validating the benefit of distribution modeling. Additionally, our uncertainty estimates are significantly higher in occluded areas, reinforcing their value in identifying regions with ambiguous sensor input. By modeling the full map distribution, MapDiffusion enhances the robustness and reliability of online vectorized HD map construction, enabling uncertainty-aware decision-making for autonomous vehicles in complex environments.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a reliable approach to aligning large language models (LLMs) to human preferences. Among the plethora of RLHF techniques, proximal policy optimization (PPO) is of the most widely used methods. Despite its popularity, however, PPO may suffer from mode collapse, instability, and poor sample efficiency. We show that these issues can be alleviated by a novel algorithm that we refer to as Advantage-Induced Policy Alignment (APA), which leverages a squared error loss function based on the estimated advantages. We demonstrate empirically that APA consistently outperforms PPO in language tasks by a large margin, when a separate reward model is employed as the evaluator. In addition, compared with PPO, APA offers a more stable form of control over the deviation from the model's initial policy, ensuring that the model improves its performance without collapsing to deterministic output. In addition to empirical results, we also provide a theoretical justification supporting the design of our loss function.

We performed a billion locality sensitive hash comparisons between artificially generated data samples to answer the critical question - can we verify the "correctness" of generative AI output in a non-deterministic, trustless, decentralized network? We generate millions of data samples from a variety of open source diffusion and large language models and describe the procedures and trade-offs between generating more verses less deterministic output in a heterogenous, stochastic network. Further, we analyze the outputs to provide empirical evidence of different parameterizations of tolerance and error bounds for verification. Finally, given that we have the generated an enormous amount of simulated data, we also release a new training dataset called ImageNet-Gen for use in augmenting existing training pipelines. For our results, we show that with a majority vote between three independent verifiers, we can detect image generated perceptual collisions in generated AI with over 99.89% probability and less than 0.0267% chance of intra-class collision. For large language models (LLMs), we are able to gain 100% consensus using greedy methods or n-way beam searches to generate consensus demonstrated on different LLMs. In the context of generative AI training, we pinpoint and minimize the major sources of stochasticity and present gossip and synchronization training techniques for verifiability. Thus, this work provides a practical, solid foundation for AI verification and consensus for the minimization of trust in a decentralized network.

Existing evaluation frameworks for large language models -- including HELM, MT-Bench, AgentBench, and BIG-bench -- are designed for controlled, single-session, lab-scale settings. They do not address the evaluation challenges that emerge when agentic AI systems operate continuously in production: compounding decision errors, tool failure cascades, non-deterministic output drift, and the absence of ground truth for long-horizon tasks. This paper makes three contributions. First, we present a taxonomy of seven failure modes unique to production agentic systems, each grounded in observations from systems operating at billion-event scale. Second, we demonstrate empirically where standard metrics -- ROUGE, BERTScore, accuracy/AUC, and the agentic benchmarks above -- fail to detect each failure mode. Third, we propose PAEF (Production Agentic Evaluation Framework), a five-dimension evaluation framework with an open-source reference implementation, designed for continuous evaluation on production traffic rather than episodic benchmark runs. Our analysis shows that standard metrics fail to detect four of the seven failure modes entirely and detect three others only after a lag of multiple evaluation cycles.

Improving a language model today means retraining it: enormous compute, a new opaque model each cycle, non-deterministic output. We take the opposite path: the model stays frozen, and a persistent memory of verified solutions grows beside it. Once a problem family is solved and has passed an independent verification step that never consults the answer key, every new instance of that family is answered at zero generation tokens, bit-exact, deterministically. Across 180 fresh instances spanning nine problem families, four architectures from four vendors - dense and mixture-of-experts - each score 180/180 at zero generation tokens per answer: execution-bound capability decoupled from parameter scaling. A negative control attributes the capability fully to the memory: emptied, it solves nothing. The same verify-before-store contract holds for open-ended reasoning: 88/88 consistency-gated acceptances across all four models, machine-checked formal proof, and reasoning-method transfer at 77/80. Memory selection takes 1.4 microseconds; a full reuse completes in 6-23 ms at 36 mWh. Approximate similarity retrieval selects the wrong item 94.3% of the time on a 4,500-item verified store where exact addressing makes zero errors. The store also serves as working context at a scale no shipped engine matches: a 6,000,000-token movable window on a single 46 GB GPU at flat memory, where vLLM stops at 30,399 tokens and SGLang silently truncates past 32,000. On published benchmarks, frontier models remain far ahead of any 12B at raw from-scratch reasoning; on everything this system has solved and verified, the comparison inverts: a frontier API call pays a fresh generation pass on every query, forever, while verified reuse costs zero tokens and returns the identical bits every time. A public testbench with free, rate-limited access accompanies this report: https://corbenic-galahad-bench.hf.space

Standard simulations of Turing machines suggest a linear relationship between the temporal duration t of a run and the amount of information that must be stored by known simulations to certify, verify, or regenerate the configuration at time t. For deterministic multitape Turing machines over a fixed finite alphabet, this apparent linear dependence is not intrinsic: any length-t run can be simulated using O(t) work-tape cells via a Height Compression Theorem for succinct computation trees together with an Algebraic Replay Engine. In this paper we recast that construction in geometric and information-theoretic language. We interpret the execution trace as a spacetime DAG of local update events and exhibit a family of recursively defined holographic boundary summaries such that, along the square-root-space simulation, the total description length of all boundary data stored at any time is O(t). Using Kolmogorov complexity, we prove that every internal configuration has constant conditional description complexity given the appropriate boundary summary and time index, establishing that the spacetime bulk carries no additional algorithmic information beyond its boundary. We express this as a one-dimensional computational area law: there exists a simulation in which the information capacity of the active "holographic screen'' needed to generate a spacetime region of volume proportional to t is bounded by O(t). In this precise sense, deterministic computation on a one-dimensional work tape admits a holographic representation, with the bulk history algebraically determined by data residing on a lower-dimensional boundary screen.

In LLM inference, the same prompt may yield different outputs across different runs. At the system level, this non-determinism arises from floating-point non-associativity combined with dynamic batching and GPU kernels whose reduction orders vary with batch size. A straightforward way to eliminate non-determinism is to disable dynamic batching during inference, but doing so severely degrades throughput. Another approach is to make kernels batch-invariant; however, this tightly couples determinism to kernel design, requiring new implementations. This coupling also imposes fixed runtime overheads, regardless of how much of the workload actually requires determinism. Inspired by ideas from speculative decoding, we present LLM-42, a scheduling-based approach to enable determinism in LLM inference. Our key observation is that if a sequence is in a consistent state, the next emitted token is likely to be consistent even with dynamic batching. Moreover, most GPU kernels use shape-consistent reductions. Leveraging these insights, LLM-42 decodes tokens using a non-deterministic fast path and enforces determinism via a lightweight verify-rollback loop. The verifier replays candidate tokens under a fixed-shape reduction schedule, commits those that are guaranteed to be consistent across runs, and rolls back those violating determinism. LLM-42 mostly re-uses existing kernels unchanged and incurs overhead only in proportion to the traffic that requires determinism.

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

Tool-using LLM agents can violate the very policies they are deployed to enforce while appearing to complete the task successfully. In policy-permissive environments, a tool may execute any well-formed call even when the corresponding state transition is forbidden by domain policy. The result is a silent wrong state (a booking cancelled, a passenger count changed, a claim acted on without verification) that neither the tool nor the agent's self-report exposes. We study this failure mode in the τ^2-bench airline domain. On a budget agent, 78% of observed failures are silent wrong-state failures with no tool error, and the aggregate failure rate is reproducible across disjoint seeds, not sampling noise. We then evaluate a lightweight intervention: deterministic, read-only pre-execution gates that inspect the proposed call and current state before allowing a write. A four-gate suite raises full-benchmark success from 29.6% to 42.0% on gpt-4o-mini (+12.4pp; paired task-level bootstrap P=0.0012), and the lift reproduces on a disjoint 15-seed set (+12.3pp; P=0.0008). The effect is concentrated where the gates fire: on the 26/50 firing tasks, success rises by +19.2pp, while movement on the 24 non-firing tasks does not exclude zero. Two negative controls (a self-enforcing retail domain and BFCL) bound the mechanism: gates help when tools are policy-permissive and add little where tools already self-enforce. As suggestive evidence, not a central claim, the same failure mode persists at the frontier: gpt-5.2 at default reasoning still attempts policy-violating writes, and the same suite improves success from 61.2% to 71.6% (+10.4pp; P=0.020; n=5, no replication). The contribution is a bounded evaluation and reliability result: deterministic gates do not guarantee task success, but they can deterministically prevent a known class of silent policy-violating writes at the action boundary.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains ignorant to its prediction confidence. Orthogonally to Bayesian neural nets that indirectly infer prediction uncertainty through weight uncertainties, we propose explicit modeling of the same using the theory of subjective logic. By placing a Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural net as subjective opinions and learn the function that collects the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic neural net from data. The resultant predictor for a multi-class classification problem is another Dirichlet distribution whose parameters are set by the continuous output of a neural net. We provide a preliminary analysis on how the peculiarities of our new loss function drive improved uncertainty estimation. We observe that our method achieves unprecedented success on detection of out-of-distribution queries and endurance against adversarial perturbations.

We study the possibility of deterministic protocols for extracting work from quantum systems. Focusing on the two-point measurement work extraction scenario, we prove that, with enough copies of the system, such zero-fluctuation protocols always exist if the Hamiltonian has a rational spectrum. Leveraging this result, we show that for any Hamiltonian, it is possible to construct an unitary driving protocol on sufficiently many copies of the system with work fluctuations strictly bounded within an arbitrary interval pm δ, albeit requiring exponentially many copies in 1/δ.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture the whole output distribution of a model, yielding inaccurate estimations of model capabilities. This is particularly problematic in critical contexts such as unlearning and alignment, where precise model evaluations are crucial. To remedy this, we introduce the first formal probabilistic evaluation framework for LLMs. Namely, we propose novel metrics with high probability guarantees concerning the output distribution of a model. Our metrics are application-independent and allow practitioners to make more reliable estimates about model capabilities before deployment. Our experimental analysis reveals that deterministic evaluations falsely indicate successful unlearning and alignment, whereas our probabilistic evaluations better capture model capabilities. We show how to overcome challenges associated with probabilistic outputs in a case study on unlearning by introducing (1) a novel loss based on entropy optimization, and (2) adaptive temperature scaling. We demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances unlearning in probabilistic settings on recent benchmarks. Overall, our proposed shift from point estimates to probabilistic evaluations of output distributions represents an important step toward comprehensive evaluations of LLMs. Code available at https://www.cs.cit.tum.de/daml/probabilistic-unlearning/.

Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill relative to numerical weather prediction, their ability to represent uncertainty and capture extremes is still limited. This study investigates how state-of-the-art deterministic artificial intelligence-based models respond to initial-condition perturbations and evaluates the resulting ensembles in forecasting extremes. Using four perturbation strategies (Gaussian, Perlin noise, Hemispheric Centered Bred Vectors, and Huge Ensembles), we generate 50 member ensembles for the August 2022 Pakistan floods and China heatwave, and complement these case studies with a global threshold-based evaluation. Ensemble skill is assessed against ERA5 and compared with IFS ENS and the AIFS ENS probabilistic model using deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Results show that simpler perturbations like Gaussian and Perlin noise produce similarly realistic ensemble spread and probabilistic skill as flow-based approaches like HCBV and HENS, narrowing but not closing the performance gap with numerical weather prediction ensembles, or native probabilistic models which retain the highest probabilistic skill across variables. Model choice is the dominant factor for ensemble performance, not perturbation method. Across variables, models capture temperature extremes more effectively than precipitation. These findings demonstrate that simple input perturbations can extend deterministic models toward probabilistic forecasting in hardware-constrained settings, supporting artificial intelligence-driven early warning systems.

The input space of a neural network with ReLU-like activations is partitioned into multiple linear regions, each corresponding to a specific activation pattern of the included ReLU-like activations. We demonstrate that this partition exhibits the following encoding properties across a variety of deep learning models: (1) {\it determinism}: almost every linear region contains at most one training example. We can therefore represent almost every training example by a unique activation pattern, which is parameterized by a {\it neural code}; and (2) {\it categorization}: according to the neural code, simple algorithms, such as K-Means, K-NN, and logistic regression, can achieve fairly good performance on both training and test data. These encoding properties surprisingly suggest that {\it normal neural networks well-trained for classification behave as hash encoders without any extra efforts.} In addition, the encoding properties exhibit variability in different scenarios. {Further experiments demonstrate that {\it model size}, {\it training time}, {\it training sample size}, {\it regularization}, and {\it label noise} contribute in shaping the encoding properties, while the impacts of the first three are dominant.} We then define an {\it activation hash phase chart} to represent the space expanded by {model size}, training time, training sample size, and the encoding properties, which is divided into three canonical regions: {\it under-expressive regime}, {\it critically-expressive regime}, and {\it sufficiently-expressive regime}. The source code package is available at https://github.com/LeavesLei/activation-code.

This paper studies propositional proof systems in which lines are sequents of decision trees or branching programs - deterministic and nondeterministic. The systems LDT and LNDT are propositional proof systems in which lines represent deterministic or non-deterministic decision trees. Branching programs are modeled as decision dags. Adding extension to LDT and LNDT gives systems eLDT and eLNDT in which lines represent deterministic and non-deterministic branching programs, respectively. Deterministic and non-deterministic branching programs correspond to log-space (L) and nondeterministic log-space (NL). Thus the systems eLDT and eLNDT are propositional proof systems that reason with (nonuniform) L and NL properties. The main results of the paper are simulation and non-simulation results for tree-like and dag-like proofs in the systems LDT, LNDT, eLDT, and eLNDT. These systems are also compared with Frege systems, constantdepth Frege systems and extended Frege systems

Modern AI systems rely on vector embeddings stored and searched using floating-point arithmetic. While effective for approximate similarity search, this design introduces fundamental non-determinism: identical models, inputs, and code can produce different memory states and retrieval results across hardware architectures (e.g., x86 vs. ARM). This prevents replayability and safe deployment, leading to silent data divergence that prevents post-hoc verification and compromises audit trails in regulated sectors. We present Valori, a deterministic AI memory substrate that replaces floating-point memory operations with fixed-point arithmetic (Q16.16) and models memory as a replayable state machine. Valori guarantees bit-identical memory states, snapshots, and search results across platforms. We demonstrate that non-determinism arises before indexing or retrieval and show how Valori enforces determinism at the memory boundary. Our results suggest that deterministic memory is a necessary primitive for trustworthy AI systems. The reference implementation is open-source and available at https://github.com/varshith-Git/Valori-Kernel (archived at https://zenodo.org/records/18022660).

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order to learn both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. We accomplish this by placing evidential priors over the original Gaussian likelihood function and training the NN to infer the hyperparameters of the evidential distribution. We additionally impose priors during training such that the model is regularized when its predicted evidence is not aligned with the correct output. Our method does not rely on sampling during inference or on out-of-distribution (OOD) examples for training, thus enabling efficient and scalable uncertainty learning. We demonstrate learning well-calibrated measures of uncertainty on various benchmarks, scaling to complex computer vision tasks, as well as robustness to adversarial and OOD test samples.

We study the behavior of deterministic methods for solving inverse problems in imaging. These methods are commonly designed to achieve two goals: (1) attaining high perceptual quality, and (2) generating reconstructions that are consistent with the measurements. We provide a rigorous proof that the better a predictor satisfies these two requirements, the larger its Lipschitz constant must be, regardless of the nature of the degradation involved. In particular, to approach perfect perceptual quality and perfect consistency, the Lipschitz constant of the model must grow to infinity. This implies that such methods are necessarily more susceptible to adversarial attacks. We demonstrate our theory on single image super-resolution algorithms, addressing both noisy and noiseless settings. We also show how this undesired behavior can be leveraged to explore the posterior distribution, thereby allowing the deterministic model to imitate stochastic methods.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.

Before acting upon an unobservable physical system, an autonomous agent must determine which latent distinctions govern downstream tasks, how many active interventions are necessary to certify them, and when to abstain to prevent catastrophic errors. Classical observability treats state reconstruction as an unconditioned binary predicate, failing when passive observations cannot break latent degeneracies without perturbation, full microscopic inversion is prohibitively costly, and distinguishing task-irrelevant degrees of freedom wastes interaction budgets. We formalize task-conditioned active observability complexity: the minimum worst-case expected interaction cost required to identify task-relevant states under certified error and safe abstention guarantees. We prove that task-predictive equivalence induces the unique minimal sufficient quotient H/!sim_τ, leaving active observability complexity strictly invariant while eliminating superfluous distinctions. In deterministic regimes, this complexity is characterized by an optimal adaptive distinguishing tree and Bellman recursion; in noisy regimes, it obeys a stopped-transcript relative-entropy lower bound and adaptive martingale certificates that compose without independence assumptions. We instantiate a prospective certified observer with staged recovery: a nominal verifier defers candidate compilation, triggering active probing only upon evidence, while a history-measurable score shell prunes hypotheses without sacrificing risk bounds. Stress audits across high-dimensional physical systems and thousands of operational trials demonstrate certified state recovery with zero false acceptances and substantial reductions in sensor reads and model steps.

Intelligent systems across physics, language and perception often exhibit factorisable structure, yet are typically modelled by monolithic neural architectures that do not explicitly exploit this structure. The separable neural architecture (SNA) addresses this by formalising a representational class that unifies additive, quadratic and tensor-decomposed neural models. By constraining interaction order and tensor rank, SNAs impose a structural inductive bias that factorises high-dimensional mappings into low-arity components. Separability need not be a property of the system itself: it often emerges in the coordinates or representations through which the system is expressed. Crucially, this coordinate-aware formulation reveals a structural analogy between chaotic spatiotemporal dynamics and linguistic autoregression. By treating continuous physical states as smooth, separable embeddings, SNAs enable distributional modelling of chaotic systems. This approach mitigates the nonphysical drift characteristics of deterministic operators whilst remaining applicable to discrete sequences. The compositional versatility of this approach is demonstrated across four domains: autonomous waypoint navigation via reinforcement learning, inverse generation of multifunctional microstructures, distributional modelling of turbulent flow and neural language modelling. These results establish the separable neural architecture as a domain-agnostic primitive for predictive and generative intelligence, capable of unifying both deterministic and distributional representations.

From a viewpoint of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive equations that describe the collective dynamics near the order-disorder transition in the globally coupled XY model and near the synchronization-desynchronization transition in the Kuramoto model. A new way of thinking is to interpret the deterministic time evolution of a macroscopic variable as an external operation to a thermodynamic system. We then find that the irreversible work determines the equation for the collective dynamics. When analyzing the Kuramoto model, we employ a generalized concept of irreversible work which originates from a non-equilibrium identity associated with steady state thermodynamics.

We present DEF (\ul{D}iffusion-augmented \ul{E}nsemble \ul{F}orecasting), a novel approach for generating initial condition perturbations. Modern approaches to initial condition perturbations are primarily designed for numerical weather prediction (NWP) solvers, limiting their applicability in the rapidly growing field of machine learning for weather prediction. Consequently, stochastic models in this domain are often developed on a case-by-case basis. We demonstrate that a simple conditional diffusion model can (1) generate meaningful structured perturbations, (2) be applied iteratively, and (3) utilize a guidance term to intuitivey control the level of perturbation. This method enables the transformation of any deterministic neural forecasting system into a stochastic one. With our stochastic extended systems, we show that the model accumulates less error over long-term forecasts while producing meaningful forecast distributions. We validate our approach on the 5.625^circ ERA5 reanalysis dataset, which comprises atmospheric and surface variables over a discretized global grid, spanning from the 1960s to the present. On this dataset, our method demonstrates improved predictive performance along with reasonable spread estimates.

Research on the distribution of prime numbers has revealed a dual character: deterministic in definition yet exhibiting statistical behavior reminiscent of random processes. In this paper we show that it is possible to use an image-focused machine learning model to measure the comparative regularity of prime number fields at specific regions of an Ulam spiral. Specifically, we demonstrate that in pure accuracy terms, models trained on blocks extracted from regions of the spiral in the vicinity of 500m outperform models trained on blocks extracted from the region representing integers lower than 25m. This implies existence of more easily learnable order in the former region than in the latter. Moreover, a detailed breakdown of precision and recall scores seem to imply that the model is favouring a different approach to classification in different regions of the spiral, focusing more on identifying prime patterns at lower numbers and more on eliminating composites at higher numbers. This aligns with number theory conjectures suggesting that at higher orders of magnitude we should see diminishing noise in prime number distributions, with averages (density, AP equidistribution) coming to dominate, while local randomness regularises after scaling by log x. Taken together, these findings point toward an interesting possibility: that machine learning can serve as a new experimental instrument for number theory. Notably, the method shows potential 1 for investigating the patterns in strong and weak primes for cryptographic purposes.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

LLMs are widely used for code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks where they are required to generate structured output. They either need to reason about code, generate code for a given specification, or reason using programs of thought. The typical approach to code generation is to prompt the model and generate samples until an appropriate program is obtained. Within this process, sampling n programs from the language model requires n GPU compute-intensive generations which becomes prohibitively expensive for larger values of n. In this work, we address this limitation by exposing the LLM's distribution within the generated programs themselves. We propose a novel test-time framework we dub probabilistic programs of thought to obtain more samples from the model with fewer LLM generations. Given a program generated by a model and the associated next-token probabilities, we build a probabilistic program that compactly represents exponentially many deterministic programs. Since performing probabilistic reasoning in this probabilistic program is much cheaper, our approach allows sampling new programs without any additional GPU compute and little CPU overhead. We instantiate our approach on benchmarks for code generation, code understanding and mathematical reasoning and report improvements in performance with fewer generations from the LLM.

The input side of the Information Bottleneck may contain task-irrelevant variation that still costs rate. We identify this cost exactly. Let T be a source and C a relevance variable. Suppose the deterministic statistic Z = phi(T) satisfies C-Z-T. For any encoder p(X|T), its conditional average over the fibres of phi preserves I(X;C) and lowers the rate by I(X;T|Z). The reverse pullback preserves both coordinates. These maps establish equality of the relevance-rate curves and Lagrangian infima on standard Borel spaces for every tradeoff parameter. They also characterise all attained optima. Every full-source minimiser factors through Z, and every reduced minimiser pulls back to T. When C is finite and distortion is logarithmic loss, replacement of T^n by Z^n also preserves the optimal remote distortion at every blocklength and message budget. The operational rate-distortion functions are therefore equal.

We study whether deterministic AI weather prediction (AIWP) models issue more informative forecasts for extreme weather events than deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The deterministic model output is subjected to statistical post-processing via isotonic distributional regression (IDR), or EasyUQ, before the resulting probabilistic forecasts are assessed using weighted versions of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). This extends the Potential CRPS (PCRPS) measure proposed by Gneiting et al. (2026) to focus on extreme outcomes. Since IDR exhibits optimality properties with respect to weighted versions of the CRPS, the proposed approach inherits desirable properties of the PCRPS, and, in particular, facilitates fair comparisons between data-driven and physics-based models when forecasting extreme weather events. We apply this evaluation framework to forecasts in the WeatherBench 2 dataset issued by the AIWP models GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, and FuXi, with the ECMWF's high-resolution NWP model serving as a physics-based reference. The forecast models are compared when predicting mean sea level pressure, temperature, wind speed, and precipitation extremes, defined as exceedances or non-exceedances of thresholds obtained from historical observation data. We additionally study forecast performance when predicting record-breaking events, though the ordering of the different methods is largely insensitive to the thresholds on which emphasis is placed. We find that AIWP models, particularly FuXi, result in the most informative forecasts for extreme weather events across most settings, suggesting that AIWP models have the potential to outperform NWP models when forecasting extremes.

We derive a minimalist but powerful deterministic denoising-diffusion model. While denoising diffusion has shown great success in many domains, its underlying theory remains largely inaccessible to non-expert users. Indeed, an understanding of graduate-level concepts such as Langevin dynamics or score matching appears to be required to grasp how it works. We propose an alternative approach that requires no more than undergrad calculus and probability. We consider two densities and observe what happens when random samples from these densities are blended (linearly interpolated). We show that iteratively blending and deblending samples produces random paths between the two densities that converge toward a deterministic mapping. This mapping can be evaluated with a neural network trained to deblend samples. We obtain a model that behaves like deterministic denoising diffusion: it iteratively maps samples from one density (e.g., Gaussian noise) to another (e.g., cat images). However, compared to the state-of-the-art alternative, our model is simpler to derive, simpler to implement, more numerically stable, achieves higher quality results in our experiments, and has interesting connections to computer graphics.

We develop analytical and particle-based methods for uncertainty propagation in random neural network models, where both the inputs and network parameters are allowed to be random. Building on the piecewise-linear structure of the Leaky ReLU activation function, we derive a local approximation of the neural network output with respect to perturbations in both its inputs and parameters. This approximation is exact for perturbations that preserve the network activation pattern, and it allows us to compute analytical expressions for the probability density function and characteristic function of the network output, together with closed-form approximations for its mean and covariance. We extend this uncertainty propagation framework to autonomous dynamical systems whose one-step evolution map is represented by a random neural network. Repeated application of this map defines an autoregressive model, for which we derive recursive equations to propagate uncertainty in both the state and network parameters over time. These equations explicitly account for the state-parameter cross-covariance that develops under successive iterations of the network. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate uncertainty propagation through the predictability horizon and the applicability of the proposed framework to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

We show that transformer-based large language models are computationally universal when augmented with an external memory. Any deterministic language model that conditions on strings of bounded length is equivalent to a finite automaton, hence computationally limited. However, augmenting such models with a read-write memory creates the possibility of processing arbitrarily large inputs and, potentially, simulating any algorithm. We establish that an existing large language model, Flan-U-PaLM 540B, can be combined with an associative read-write memory to exactly simulate the execution of a universal Turing machine, U_{15,2}. A key aspect of the finding is that it does not require any modification of the language model weights. Instead, the construction relies solely on designing a form of stored instruction computer that can subsequently be programmed with a specific set of prompts.

In recent years, significant progress has been made in solving challenging problems across various domains using deep reinforcement learning (RL). Reproducing existing work and accurately judging the improvements offered by novel methods is vital to sustaining this progress. Unfortunately, reproducing results for state-of-the-art deep RL methods is seldom straightforward. In particular, non-determinism in standard benchmark environments, combined with variance intrinsic to the methods, can make reported results tough to interpret. Without significance metrics and tighter standardization of experimental reporting, it is difficult to determine whether improvements over the prior state-of-the-art are meaningful. In this paper, we investigate challenges posed by reproducibility, proper experimental techniques, and reporting procedures. We illustrate the variability in reported metrics and results when comparing against common baselines and suggest guidelines to make future results in deep RL more reproducible. We aim to spur discussion about how to ensure continued progress in the field by minimizing wasted effort stemming from results that are non-reproducible and easily misinterpreted.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have mostly been benchmarked using deterministic skill scores, and little is known about their probabilistic skill. Unfortunately, it is hard to fairly compare AI weather models in a probabilistic sense, since variations in choice of ensemble initialization, definition of state, and noise injection methodology become confounding. Moreover, even obtaining ensemble forecast baselines is a substantial engineering challenge given the data volumes involved. We sidestep both problems by applying a decades-old idea -- lagged ensembles -- whereby an ensemble can be constructed from a moderately-sized library of deterministic forecasts. This allows the first parameter-free intercomparison of leading AI weather models' probabilistic skill against an operational baseline. The results reveal that two leading AI weather models, i.e. GraphCast and Pangu, are tied on the probabilistic CRPS metric even though the former outperforms the latter in deterministic scoring. We also reveal how multiple time-step loss functions, which many data-driven weather models have employed, are counter-productive: they improve deterministic metrics at the cost of increased dissipation, deteriorating probabilistic skill. This is confirmed through ablations applied to a spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) approach to AI weather forecasting. Separate SFNO ablations modulating effective resolution reveal it has a useful effect on ensemble dispersion relevant to achieving good ensemble calibration. We hope these and forthcoming insights from lagged ensembles can help guide the development of AI weather forecasts and have thus shared the diagnostic code.

The training data for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is typically structured as input-output pairs. However, for many tasks, there can be multiple equally valid output variations for the same input. Recent studies have observed that the choice of output variation used in training can affect the model's performance. This raises an important question: how can we generate the most effective output from the many possible response generation strategy options? Rather than relying on the traditional but resource-intensive train-and-evaluate approach, this paper proposes a scalable, approximate method for estimating the quality of a small subset of generated training data derived from the same input. We then evaluate how well this small subset of generated output fits the target model we are trying to train. We present a large-scale benchmark covering diverse reasoning-based datasets to support our study. The central idea is that a good output should closely resemble the output generated by the target LLM. We formalize this 'closeness' as the expected alignment score between a candidate output and the output sampled from the target LLM. We connect this measurement to the perplexity metric used in previous literature and demonstrate that leveraging an alignment-based metric can provide better predictions of model performance. Using this strategy, we can evaluate a small subset of the generated output from each response generation strategy option, then select the most effective strategy. We show that an LLM trained on data generated by the selected strategy could lead to a significant performance gain in many cases.

Prompt engineering is crucial for deploying LLMs but is poorly understood mathematically. We formalize LLM systems as a class of discrete stochastic dynamical systems to explore prompt engineering through the lens of control theory. We investigate the reachable set of output token sequences R_y(mathbf x_0) for which there exists a control input sequence mathbf u for each mathbf y in R_y(mathbf x_0) that steers the LLM to output mathbf y from initial state sequence mathbf x_0. We offer analytic analysis on the limitations on the controllability of self-attention in terms of reachable set, where we prove an upper bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) as a function of the singular values of the parameter matrices. We present complementary empirical analysis on the controllability of a panel of LLMs, including Falcon-7b, Llama-7b, and Falcon-40b. Our results demonstrate a lower bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) w.r.t. initial state sequences mathbf x_0 sampled from the Wikitext dataset. We find that the correct next Wikitext token following sequence mathbf x_0 is reachable over 97% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. We also establish that the top 75 most likely next tokens, as estimated by the LLM itself, are reachable at least 85% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. Intriguingly, short prompt sequences can dramatically alter the likelihood of specific outputs, even making the least likely tokens become the most likely ones. This control-centric analysis of LLMs demonstrates the significant and poorly understood role of input sequences in steering output probabilities, offering a foundational perspective for enhancing language model system capabilities.

In this article, we propose a new counter-based implementation of John von Neumann's middle-square random number generator (RNG). Several rounds of squaring are applied to a counter to produce a random output. We discovered that four rounds are sufficient to provide satisfactory data. Two versions of the RNG are presented, a 4-round version with 32-bit output and a 5-round version with 64-bit output. Both pass stringent tests of randomness and may be the fastest counter-based generators.

In this paper I apply newly-proposed information-theoretic principles to thermodynamic work extraction. I show that if it is possible to extract work deterministically from a physical system prepared in any one of a set of states, then those states must be distinguishable from one another. This result is formulated independently of scale and of particular dynamical laws; it also provides a novel connection between thermodynamics and information theory, established via the law of conservation of energy (rather than the second law of thermodynamics). Albeit compatible with these conclusions, existing thermodynamics approaches cannot provide a result of such generality, because they are scale-dependent (relying on ensembles or coarse-graining) or tied to particular dynamical laws. This paper thus provides a broader foundation for thermodynamics, with implications for the theory of von Neumann's universal constructor

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Reconstructing PDE solutions from sparse observations is a core challenge in scientific computing. We present FM4PDE, a flow-matching generative framework that learns the joint distribution of PDE coefficients (or initial states) and solutions (or final states), enabling both forward simulation and inverse recovery with limited paired data. At inference, sampling is guided by a composite loss that enforces agreement with sparse measurements and reduces the PDE residual; we support deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid samplers. We provide error guarantees for these guided procedures. For the deterministic optimizer, a coercivity condition ensures trajectory boundedness and a phase-wise contraction yields logarithmic complexity in the target accuracy. For the stochastic sampler, we introduce adaptive guidance and assume dissipativity of the velocity field to obtain uniform moment bounds independent of the noise-floor parameter. This leads to polynomial-time error bounds, and a matching lower bound shows constant guidance induces an unavoidable positive bias, motivating adaptivity. A hybrid deterministic-stochastic analysis is also provided. Experiments on static and time-dependent benchmark PDEs demonstrate competitive accuracy and faster inference than diffusion-based generative models.

Data-driven embodied AI is rapidly transitioning into a paradigm that scales training through massively parallel simulation, where GPU-accelerated simulators serve as the foundational data infrastructure. However, as computational throughput scales, the underlying trade-offs between parallel efficiency, physical fidelity, and execution determinism remain largely unexamined, hindering the development of reliable robot learning. In this paper, we expose the hidden limits of mainstream GPU-based robotic simulators (e.g., Isaac Lab, Genesis) by introducing GPUSimBench, which focuses on scalability, physical consistency, and computational determinism. First, GPUSimBench establishes a physical grounding evaluation with a controlled inclined-plane task, quantifying the distributional alignment between simulated dynamics and their real-world counterparts. Second, we benchmark parallel scalability by measuring throughput and memory footprints across scaling environment counts. Crucially, beyond standard performance metrics, we unveil and quantify the inherent non-determinism introduced by GPU-batched execution, characterized by significant run-to-run and inter-environment variability even under identical initial conditions. Finally, we identify four empirical regimes of stochasticity within current simulator stacks, highlighting that unbounded scaling can compromise reproducibility without explicit constraints.

We present SPL (Structured Prompt Language), a declarative language that composes deterministic and probabilistic computation modes in a single specification. While existing frameworks separate these -- orchestration systems (AutoGen, CrewAI, LangGraph) for LLM calls, symbolic tools (SymPy, SageMath, Lean) for computation -- SPL unifies them. It provides GENERATE/EVALUATE for probabilistic computation and SOLVE/ASSERT for deterministic computation, sharing syntax, variable bindings, and runtime routing. A .spl specification runs unchanged across local nodes (Ollama), cloud APIs (OpenRouter, Anthropic), and distributed grids (Momagrid), with model and verifier selection deferred to invocation time. We validate SPL through an extensive 78-recipe cookbook and a controlled 1,200-run experiment (10 models x 20 problems x 2 arms x 3 repetitions; the 20 problems span 6 difficulty tiers). The solver arm achieves 82-93% machine-verified correctness (sonnet-4-6: 85%, gemma4:e2b: 93%) while the LLM-only arm measures output production without mathematical verification, making the comparison one of verified correctness against unverified fluency. A backend difficulty gradient emerges (SymPy 78%, Sage 54%), and the dominant failure mode is solver_error (kernel-rejected expressions), not format non-compliance.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

Many modern AI question-answering systems convert text into vectors and retrieve the closest matches to a user question. While effective for topical similarity, similarity scores alone do not explain why some retrieved text can serve as evidence while other equally similar text cannot. When many candidates receive similar scores, systems may select sentences that are redundant, incomplete, or address different conditions than the question requires. This paper presents a deterministic evidence selection framework for retrieval-augmented question answering. The approach introduces Meaning-Utility Estimation (MUE) and Diversity-Utility Estimation (DUE), fixed scoring and redundancy-control procedures that determine evidence admissibility prior to answer generation. Each sentence or record is evaluated independently using explicit signals for semantic relatedness, term coverage, conceptual distinctiveness, and redundancy. No training or fine-tuning is required. In the prototype, a unit is accepted only if it explicitly states the fact, rule, or condition required by the task. Units are not merged or expanded. If no unit independently satisfies the requirement, the system returns no answer. This deterministic gating produces compact, auditable evidence sets and establishes a clear boundary between relevant text and usable evidence.

Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) often overlook non-determinism, typically focusing on a single output per example. This limits our understanding of LLM performance variability in real-world applications. Our study addresses this issue by exploring key questions about the performance differences between greedy decoding and sampling, identifying benchmarks' consistency regarding non-determinism, and examining unique model behaviors. Through extensive experiments, we observe that greedy decoding generally outperforms sampling methods for most evaluated tasks. We also observe consistent performance across different LLM sizes and alignment methods, noting that alignment can reduce sampling variance. Moreover, our best-of-N sampling approach demonstrates that smaller LLMs can match or surpass larger models such as GPT-4-Turbo, highlighting the untapped potential of smaller LLMs. This research shows the importance of considering non-determinism in LLM evaluations and provides insights for future LLM development and evaluation.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for large language models (LLMs), yet the non-deterministic behavior of DLMs remains poorly understood. The existing non-determinism evaluations for LLMs predominantly rely on dataset-level metrics under fixed inference configurations, providing limited insight into how model behavior varies across runs and evaluation conditions. In this work, we show that dataset-level metrics systematically attenuate non-determinism in diffusion language models by aggregating sample-level prediction quality across different runs. As a result, configurations with similar aggregate performance can exhibit substantially different behaviors on individual inputs, leaving fine-grained instability and distinct error patterns uncharacterized. To address this limitation, we conduct a fine-grained evaluation of non-determinism based on sample-level prediction differences across a range of model-related factors-including guidance scale, diffusion steps, and Monte Carlo sampling-as well as system-related factors such as batch size, hardware, and numerical precision. Our analysis reveals that non-determinism in DLMs is pervasive and structured, with code generation exhibiting markedly higher sensitivity to factor-level choices than question answering. To attribute sources of non-determinism evaluation, we introduce Factor Variance Attribution (FVA), a cross-factor analysis metric that decomposes observed non-determinism into variance attributable to different evaluation factor settings. Our findings highlight the need for fine-grained, factor-aware evaluation to enable reliable non-determinism assessment of diffusion language models.

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer flexible, non-autoregressive generation, but this freedom introduces a challenge: final output quality is highly sensitive to the decoding order. We are the first to formalize this issue, attributing the variability in output quality to the cumulative predictive uncertainty along a generative path. To quantify this uncertainty, we introduce Denoising Entropy, a computable metric that serves as an internal signal for evaluating generative process. Leveraging this metric, we propose two algorithms designed to optimize the decoding path: a post-hoc selection method and a real-time guidance strategy. Experiments demonstrate that our entropy-guided methods significantly improve generation quality, consistently boosting accuracy on challenging reasoning, planning, and code benchmarks. Our work establishes Denoising Entropy as a principled tool for understanding and controlling generation, effectively turning the uncertainty in MDMs from a liability into a key advantage for discovering high-quality solutions.

Predicting transcriptome-wide responses to unseen genetic perturbations remains a major computational challenge because accurate prediction requires recovering both perturbation-specific transcriptional shifts and heterogeneous cellular responses. Existing methods often entangle deterministic response structure with stochastic population-level variation, causing dominant shared patterns to mask weaker perturbation-specific signals and impair distributional modeling. To address these challenges, we propose DeMixPert, an approach for Decomposed response Modeling with Gaussian Mixtures for Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) single-cell Perturbation prediction. DeMixPert decomposes perturbation-induced changes into a basal-state-dependent systematic response, a perturbation-specific response, and population-level variation. The systematic component is derived from the basal state encoded from control-cell expression, whereas the perturbation-specific component is inferred from pretrained target embeddings for unseen-target generalization. DeMixPert models population-level variation using a Gaussian prototype Invertible Network and adaptively combines reusable Gaussian prototypes according to the basal state and perturbation condition. The resulting mixture is mapped to a condition-specific variation distribution. Sampled variations are integrated with the systematic and perturbation-specific components, followed by joint decoding with the basal state to reconstruct perturbed-cell gene expression. Experimental results show that DeMixPert effectively captures heterogeneous single-cell perturbation responses and achieves superior performance across unseen-perturbation settings. The source code is made publicly available upon publication.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these deterministic uncertainty methods (DUMs) achieve strong performance on detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data while adding negligible computational costs at inference time. However, it remains unclear whether DUMs are well calibrated and can seamlessly scale to real-world applications - both prerequisites for their practical deployment. To this end, we first provide a taxonomy of DUMs, and evaluate their calibration under continuous distributional shifts. Then, we extend them to semantic segmentation. We find that, while DUMs scale to realistic vision tasks and perform well on OOD detection, the practicality of current methods is undermined by poor calibration under distributional shifts.

Deep learning has become an area of interest in most scientific areas, including physical sciences. Modern networks apply real-valued transformations on the data. Particularly, convolutions in convolutional neural networks discard phase information entirely. Many deterministic signals, such as seismic data or electrical signals, contain significant information in the phase of the signal. We explore complex-valued deep convolutional networks to leverage non-linear feature maps. Seismic data commonly has a lowcut filter applied, to attenuate noise from ocean waves and similar long wavelength contributions. Discarding the phase information leads to low-frequency aliasing analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon theorem for high frequencies. In non-stationary data, the phase content can stabilize training and improve the generalizability of neural networks. While it has been shown that phase content can be restored in deep neural networks, we show how including phase information in feature maps improves both training and inference from deterministic physical data. Furthermore, we show that the reduction of parameters in a complex network outperforms larger real-valued networks.